The race is on. Can Democrats push health care reform through the Senate now that their filibuster-proof majority of 60 to 40 is set to expire when the new Republican Senator from Massachusetts takes his seat?  Or, will cooler heads prevail? Massachusetts voters provided extra drama this week when the election to fill the rest of Ted Kennedy’s term resulted in an upset win for Republican Scott Brown.

Trying to pass health reform before the State of Union address (now set for January 27) was always the President’s goal. Because of the Massachusetts election, it became a Democratic imperative in the minds of some leadership to pass health reform as soon as possible. But it is very unclear if this can be accomplished. Massachusetts election officials (all Democrats) could take all of the allowed time (roughly 15 days) to certify the election, but under Senate rules Senate Democrats could seat Senator-elect Brown right now and not wait for certification.  While there is some talk about speeding health reform through in advance of the swearing-in via a very tortured legislative process, it is more likely that the vote in Massachusetts has made the rank and file Democrats in Congress even more nervous about voting for a bill supported by just 37 percent of the country, according to a Gallup Poll.

Source: Aetna, InsuranceCompany.com

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